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Ilmuwan Prediksi El Nino Terjadi Selama Tiga Bulan ke Depan Organisasi Meteorologi Dunia (WMO) memprediksi 75-80 persen kemungkinan fenomenaEl Nino bakal terjadi dalam kurun waktu tiga bulan ke depan. Hal itu diperkirakan bakal berdampak pada perubahan polacuaca di beberapa kawasan. Analisis WMO menyebutkan bahwa El Nino kemungkinan akan terjadi pada Desember 2018 hingga Februari 2019, dengan 60 persen kemungkinan berlanjut hingga April 2019. Namun, fenomena El Nino yang bakal terjadi diprediksi tak sekuat peristiwa serupa yang pernah terjadi sebelumnya. Fenomena El Nino 2015-2016 mencatat sejarah sebagai tahun terpanas yang menyebabkan sejumlah bencana kekeringan dan banjir di sejumlah wilayah.
"Tapi fenomena El Nino kali ini secara signifikan akan memengaruhi curah hujan dan pola suhu di banyak wilayah. Ia juga menimbulkan konsekuensi besar terhadap sektor pertanian," ujar ahli iklim WMO, Maxx Dilley, mengutipAFP . Selain itu, fenomena El Nino yang sudah di depan mata ini juga diprediksi akan berdampak pada perubahan iklim jangka panjang dan meningkatkan suhu global pada 2019 mendatang. Fenomena El Nino dipicu oleh pemanasan berkala di Samudera Pasifik. Biasanya, fenomena ini akan muncul setiap tiga hingga tujuh tahun sekali. Sebelumnya, El Nino sempat mencatat rekor sejarah terkait cuaca ekstrem yang terjadi di dunia. El Nino membuat tahun 2016 menjadi tahun terpanas yang pernah tercatat. Tahun berikutnya, 2017, tercatat sebagai tahun terpanas kedua. Kini, para ilmuwan memperkirakan 2018 akan tercatat sebagai tahun terpanas keempat. Namun, belum bisa dipastikan apakah El Nino pada periode ini akan membuat 2019 menjadi salah satu tahun terpanas.
"Kondisi El Nino ini sangat mungkin berkontribusi terhadap suhu global yang lebih panas pada 2019," ujar pakar iklim, Tim Stockdale, mengutipThe Guardian . Kendati demikian, dia mengatakan, terlalu dini untuk menentukan apakah 2019 akan menjadi salah satu tahun terpanas atau tidak akibat fenomena El Nino yang akan terjadi. Pemanasan global yang terjadi akibat ulah manusia telah menciptakan 18 tahun terpanas sepanjang sejarah sejak 1850 silam. 17 di antaranya terjadi dalam kurun waktu 17 tahun selama 2000-2017.
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