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Siapa yang Untung dari Perang Dagang AS-Tiongkok? Kebijakan Amerika Serikat (AS) mematok tarif tinggi terhadap komoditas asal Tiongkok menjadi berkah bagi sejumlah negara di Asia. Mereka berpotensi menjadi substitusi ekspor Tiongkok ke AS.
(Baca:Nilai Minus Iklim Investasi Indonesia di Mata Bank Dunia )
Dalam artikel yang ditulis Massimiliano Calì, senior ekonom di Bank Dunia, negara Asia yang paling berpeluang meningkatkan ekspor ke AS adalah Vietnam. Negara tersebut berpeluang meningkatkan ekspor hingga 4,4 persen terhadap PDB. Selain Vietnam, yang juga berpotensi meningkatkan ekspornya adalah Filipina (4,1 persen), Kamboja (3,6 persen), Taiwan (3,4 persen), dan Singapura (3 persen).
(Baca:Vietnam Rebut Mayoritas Investasi yang Relokasi dari Tiongkok )
Sementara itu, potensi Indonesia untuk menggantikan ekspor Tiongkok hanya sebesar 1 persen, terendah di antara negara-negara Asia lainnya. Rata-rata pertumbuhan nilai ekspornya ke AS dalam enam tahun terakhir pun tergolong kecil, yaitu 1,9 persen.
(Baca:33 Perusahaan Keluar dari Tiongkok, Tak Satu pun ke Indonesia )
Besaran potensi ini diukur berdasarkan kesamaan hasil produksi dan komoditas ekspor ke AS antara Tiongkok dan negara substitusi. Beberapa komoditas ekspor Tiongkok yang telah dikenai tarif impor tinggi antara lain elektronika; furnitur; kendaraan bermotor; plastik, kulit, kayu, logam, dan barang turunannya; alat optik; bahan kimia organik; kaca dan barang pecah-belah; serta ikan dan hewan laut lainnya.